Massanutten Mountain Trails 100 Mile Run

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What are my chances of
getting off the wait list?

Please consult this page before asking whether you will get in. This is about all we can say.

Summary

We don't know.

We can't guarantee anyone's chances of getting off the wait list and onto the entrants list. Here is, however, some more information to help you get an idea of your chances.

It is very important to understand that the word, "withdrawal" includes two concepts below. People withdraw from the entrants list, and people withdraw from the wait list. If you are number 50 on the wait list, you don't need 50 people to withdraw from the entrants list. You need the people who have withdrawn from the entrants list and above you on the wait list to total 50. Unfortunately, the withdrawal numbers below do not always distinguish between the two kinds of withdrawals.

Experience has shown us that some things are predictable and somethings are not.

What is Predictable

What is Not Predictable

Wild Card
We have changed the schedule of the entry process for 2014. No movement will occur off the wait list later than it did last year. So the timing of movement will change. We do not believe that the overall chance of running the race will change.

History - Not Guaranteed to Repeat
In the history of the lottery, every one with at least one prior finish who applied for entry during the initial period, who joined the wait list on time, and who stuck with it, was able to run. In 2013, of the 411 people who initially applied for entry, only 20 were stuck on the wait list at the end. (That does not mean that all the others got in. Many, of course, didn't complete the process or withdrew.) We can't promise that this will repeat.

Some Data

You can use the following information to judge how good your chances are of moving from the wait list to be among the entrants. Please note that the entry limit for 2011 through 2012 was 205. The entry limit for 2013 was 208 and is the same for 2014. The limit was 180 entrants for 2009 and 2010. The limit was 160 entrants for all years listed below prior to 2009.

On Lottery Day20102011201220132014
Total Applicants438 416 413 411 362
Eligible to Enter180 205 205 208 250*
Eligible to Join Wait List258 211 208 203 112
After Time to Pay20102011201220132014
Total303 286 304 294 284
Entrants List180 205 205 208 200
Wait List123 81 99 86 84
Wait List on Race Day20102011201220132014
Total48 0 32 28  
Were in Lottery 44 0 23 20  
Joined Later4 0 9 8  
* Prior to 2014, we only allowed the race maximum number to pay and join the entry list. Each year, some would not pay and a group at the top of the wait list would be moved to the entrants list when the time to pay ended. In 2014, we allowed 42 people from the top of the wait list to pay initially. The maximum size of the field did not change in 2014.

To the right is raw entry information. It does not tell you two important facts:

  1. It does not distinguish between those who got off the wait list because they got in the race and those who got off the wait list because they withdrew from it. In those years that the wait list was exhausted, it does not mean that everyone got in. Many gave up.
  2. This information do not identify when people moved. Most movement is toward the end. There is more information on that question below.

To get a better picture of things, consult the data below.

Withdrawal Data

Former race director Stan Duobinis kept track of when people withdrew. His data and comments are below. We have added data for 2011 from those who withdrew and received a refund, and from 2010 from backup copies of the wait list at the end of each month. Data from 2012 comes soley from the refunds issued to entrants. These data should be generally comparable to the other years set out here though not precisely so.

For the 2010 and 2011 data, withdrawals equal those who withdrew from the entrants list plus those who withdrew from the wait list. For 2012 and 2013, withdrawals are only from the entry list. All 2013 withdrawals are here.

Withdrawals
Month2013201220112010200920082007
Dec0000131
Jan11522353
Feb121071053
Mar121720137138
Apr20164348191516
May85371147
Totals42418177714538

The totals are a bit off for those years that are in both tables. One reason for that would be people who joined the wait list after initial entry. That is not a significant number of people, however.

For 2009: Of the 24 people who are listed as withdrawing in January of 2009, 21 of those were selected in the initial lottery but never paid the entry fee. Only 3 were people who actually withdrew after paying the entry fee.

For 2008: The number of withdrawals shown in this table for 2008 adds up to 45. While our limit for the event was 160, it was our first year using electronic entry, and we accidentally allowed 162 people into the event on the first day. As a result, the first two withdrawals did not move anyone from the wait list to the entry list.

Withdrawals from the race occur mainly due to injury, and runners who are injured early – December, January - assume that they will heal before MMT. Most wait as long as possible before withdrawing. The table shows that most withdrawals occur close to the run. If you are on the wait list, it may take quite a while before you are moved to the entrants list.

In 2009, we had a lottery to determine the entrants. A total of 333 people entered the lottery. After the 180 entrants were selected, the remaining 153 lottery losers were eligible to join the wait list. In order, to be placed on the wait list, lottery losers needed to send in a check to hold their spots on the wait list. Only 66 did so. All of these people eventually became entrants. In fact, there were five people who were on the wait list who were not in the original lottery who also became entrants. The last loser drawn in the original lottery was able to run in the 2009 MMT 100.

This final fact would seem unlikely, as we did not have 153 withdrawals from the run. In fact, we had 71 withdrawals from the entrants' list as well as 82 people who withdrew from the wait list or who were eligible but never joined the wait list.

The bottom line is that approximately one-third of the 2009 starting field came from the wait list.

In 2008, the MMT 100 reached its entry limit quickly on the first day of entry. As a result, we had a large wait list. That year we had a total of 96 people who spent some time on the wait list. Of that total, 43 people were able to run in the MMT 100. (That was over 25 percent of the field.) But, these were not the first 38 people on the wait list! This is due to the fact that we had 27 people withdraw from the wait list, mainly because they didn't want to wait anymore. That meant that the person who was 52nd among all of those who were on the wait list was eventually able to enter the MMT 100. In fact, of the total of 96 people who were on the wait list last year, only 26 did not make it into the event or withdraw from the wait list.

For the 2007 MMT 100, we reached our limit of 160 participants by December 9. (Entry opened on December 1 in 2007.) As a result, we had a wait list beginning in December.

For 2007, there were 56 people who were on the wait list at some point. We had a total of 38 of the original entrants to the MMT 100 withdraw. (That was nearly 25 percent of the original field.) This meant that 38 people from the wait list eventually became entrants. But, these were not the first 38 people on the wait list! This is due to the fact that we had 16 people withdraw from the wait list, mainly because they didn't want to wait anymore. That meant that the person who was 54th among all of those who were on the wait list was eventually able to enter the MMT 100. In fact, of the total of 56 people who were on the wait list last year, only two did not make it into the event or withdraw from the wait list.